Value of Things: Evaluating the Laremy Tunsil Trade

I refer you to a simpler time. It was circa spring of 2003 and ESPN was previewing the NFL Draft. They were running ads with the question, “what does your team need?” On the screen was a beleaguered David Carr taking the snap from center with no guards and no tackles on the offensive line. A picture is worth a 1,000 words and Carr had just come off of a season where he was sacked a franchise high 72 times. Oh, those were simpler times.

During a week when the Texans had already cut Shaq Mason, trading their best offensive lineman seems like lunacy. At face value I can’t disagree. I half-way expected to see a press release saying, “Houston Texans Executive VP and GM Nick Caserio petitions the league to switch to a five Mississippi blitzing rule as Houston experiments with a six wide receiver, two back, and one tight end set.”

However, I would be remiss to point out that I suggested this very thing a couple of weeks ago. So, far be it for me to go back on my own suggestion now and blow it all up. True, I did not necessarily anticipate them also cutting Mason, but the move also doesn’t surprise me. However, I will go against the majority of the fanbase and the masthead here and rundown why this deal makes sense.

The Compensation

The first mark against the deal is that you essentially traded two first round picks and a washed up lineman for Tunsil and Kenny Stills in 2019. So, how could you trade what for essentially the equivalent of a second and third rounder for Tunsil now? The teams did exchange fourth rounders with the Texans trading their 2025 fourth rounder and getting one back in 2026. They also get a seventh rounder this season, but that obviously is not a huge consideration.

Essentially, calling this a bad deal because of the 2019 trade is what many would lovingly call the sunk cost fallacy. Ostensibly, every deal exists on its own and should be graded on its own merit. The initial Tunsil trade was the second dumbest transaction of the Bill O’Brien era and that is only because the Deandre Hopkins trade was legendarily awful. The compensation you get now can’t be compared to the compensation you gave up then. You got pantsed on that deal. You cannot allow it to constrain you now.

Plus, you got five seasons’ worth of performance from the guy. Presumably, these were the best five seasons of his career. That is worth something in the bargain. A 25-year-old tackle in his prime is worth more than a 30-year-old tackle likely at the tail end of his prime. The Commanders are clearly going all in on competing the next two seasons while Jayden Daniels is on his rookie deal. It is highly possible that by the end of that two-year run they will realize that Tunsil is no longer one of the best left tackles in the business.

Long-term financial savings

In the immediate term, you save only a little more than $13 million on the cap. That’s quite a bit of dead money as you are also taking on dead money from cutting Mason. However, the majority of that dead cap clears after the season. The Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry contracts also clear as well. Suddenly, the 2026 offseason looks much better when you consider you add all of that cap space and an extra two draft picks in the second and fourth round.

Sure, a lot of good that does us in 2025. I totally get that, but let’s consider what is on the horizon. Derek Stingley likely will be extended this offseason. Will Anderson and C.J. Stroud will be eligible for extensions during that offseason. Moves like this might be the best opportunity you have to lock all of those guys long-term.

In order to see the downsides we only have to look a few miles north on I-45 to see what happens when you kick the can down the road. The Arlington outfit paid nearly ten million extra per season by waiting on a Dak Prescott extension. They paid a little less than that per season by waiting on a CeeDee Lamb extension. The Myles Garrett contract just shot the price up on Micah Parson. It is not completely outrageous to suggest that they will spend $20 million more a season that they wouldn’t have had to spend had they inked them when they first became eligible for extensions. The Texans can avoid the cost overruns by putting themselves in financial position to move as early as they possibly can.

SWARM

Even given all of these factors, I don’t think you consider a deal if Tunsil were living up to his end of the bargain. Tunsil was the highest paid player on the Texans. There comes a time when you consider what that means for everyone else in the locker room. All you have to do is look across town at Daikan Park to see the immediate comparison. Jose Altuve is the highest paid Astro. He has agreed to move to left field to make the team better. He took less money so that they could sign other players. He plays banged up and steps up as a team leader. He is who you want as the face of your franchise.

Tunsil does none of those things. At each opportunity he has fought to be the highest paid left tackle in the business. He is concerned with how he is perceived by rating systems like PFF. He seemingly takes days off every week for whatever reason. Reportedly, coaches have to beg him to participate in voluntary activities. While he is a brilliant pass protector, he is not exactly a willing run blocker or physical presence on the line.

Maybe he doesn’t have to be any of those things in Washington. If that is the case then this might be best for all involved. For the nearly $30 million per season, the Texans really needed a leader. They never got one. As a spectator, I can’t tell you how this impacted the other guys on the line. As a former coach, I can see exactly how this type of player impacts your team.

On my best teams, the best player on the team was also the hardest worker on the team. On my worst teams, the best player knew they were the best player and so they simply didn’t work as hard. The best player knows you have to play him or her. They have you over a barrel. The other players see that and so they behave accordingly. It snowballs. While the offensive line may have fewer pedigreed guys, they may actually be better because of it. We just don’t know how it all turns out yet.

The Final Analysis

I would be remiss not to the point out the obvious. Whether this deal becomes a success or failure is dependent on three things. First, who do the Texans play at left tackle and can that player hold down the fort? Secondly, how do they spend the cap savings now and in the future? Third, are they able to parlay those extra draft picks into useful players? We don’t know the answer to any of those questions yet. So, we will need to stay tuned, but I for one am giving this trade a reluctant thumbs up for the time being.